Interesting thoughts here! I come from an East African background and great-grandmothers particularly were common, because women started having children so young (even teenage years, in my grandmother's generation). Great-grandfathers you would see much less often, I think both due to shorter life expectancy of men and the age in which they started having children. (For your data, I think the numbers are too heavily influenced by larger numbers of deaths under 5 years old, so life expectancy after early childhood hasn't actually increased that much.)
Thanks for this! It seems everyone has chosen to point that out to me (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39839629) and I seriously regret having referenced any data in this post at this point :(
I'm well-aware that life expectancy at birth is not the best proxy here (as I am one to regularly point out to my dad that *his* life expectancy isn't ~72 given he's already 60), but ended up mentioning it instead of going on a deep data dive about "life expectancy as an adult in the 17 and 1800s" as that wasn't what I wanted with this piece.
Nevertheless, while child mortality heavily influenced those numbers, a lot fewer people did still make it to older age - just think of all the advances we've made to modern medicine. I may have made a mistake to mention the 1800s but overall I'm reasonably confident my point about "a small window in humanity" still stands. Were there a lot of great-grandparents in the 1200s I wonder? What about the 500s? Either way, that still leaves us with just a dozen or so centuries for the "age of great-grandparents" out of all the time humans have been on Earth.
Oh no, I’m sorry I mentioned it again then! I’m sure that’s annoying 😓 yes, in the grand scheme of human history I’m sure even having grandparents into adulthood is quite beautiful.
Yeah sorry for using this comment as an outlet. But yes, a mistake on my part to use life expectancy at birth (despite knowing better). Personally think the point still stands though
My understanding is that life expectancy was low in the past because child mortality was high, but adults who made it past these perilous early years often lived into their 60s, 70s.
You're right! I did actually add a small note about this in the piece as well since I'm always one to note to people about how life expectancy at birth isn't what we should look at.
(I constantly remind my 60-year-old parents that _their_ life expectancy is not ~72 but rather much higher)
However, it was just the proxy I used here as going on a full data deep dive was not my objective here. I'm reasonably sure we can agree though that life expectancy at 40 was significantly lower than back then though, given all the advances in medicine and other aspects of society.
"Were great-grandparents a thing in the past?" would probably be a fun follow-up to this, but while I made a point about the past in this post the main focus is the future!
Honestly, with all the drinking, weed, meds, and fatness I would expect life expectancy for millennials and Z to decrease. 72 is a safe bet. Actually there are many in 50s without health insurance so that helps to cull the herd as well.
I met four of my great-grandparents and had a good relationship with two of them (my maternal-maternal set). Of those two, my great-grandfather died when I was 11. However, my great-grandmother lived until I was 35... and I had teenage children by that time... so, we had 5 generations alive. If she would have survived another 5 years, we would have reached 6 generations alive at one time.
We see the same trend here in India too. Do you think it is only a function of better life expectancy alone that couples have decided to have children much later?
I have a feeling that the cost of living also seems to be a function (or people wanting to settle down financially) which is forcing folks to get married much later. Of course, women being empowered to take their own decisions has significantly changed the timelines.
Counter intuitively in affluent families and families of old wealth, I find that marriages and the kids happen much earlier (early 20s - mid 20s).
Apple will soon include A.I. in iPhones that will in essence provide an eternal simulation of each of us. Progeny will be able to interact with us in our own voices and likely in 3D. When openAI and its humanoid robots align, your AI clone will be uploaded to the unit. Unfortunately “you” won’t be able to enjoy or reciprocate “their” enjoyment. Similar to if you recorded a video to your family today and they watched it after you passed away.
In usa the age of average marriage is 29 (30 male 28 female i think). I didnt marry until age 35. I am pretty certain my family has NEVER had a great grandmother (all college educated).
The postwar baby boom and suburbanization and lots of factory jobs allowed many GIs to be married with a house in the suburbs at age TWENTY FIVE - ready to procreate! High college tuition inflation (5% annually these past 40 years) and the disappearance of Pell educational grants has probably added 5 years to the age of the average first time parent ... Lots of stuff needs to be fixed to allow childbirth at under age 25 in the future!
Inflation has caused the rule of thumb for generations to go from 30 to 40 and beyond. If we just wait until we are financially secure and not narcissistic....that will be the perfect time to have a child. Never happens. iPhone broke society.
I believe that even though this generation is becoming grandparents at an older age, they seem to be younger at heart than previous generations. Most memories of my grandma are basically of her knitting, taking care of the house, and praying the rosary. There wasn't a real connection with grandchildren, and I attribute this to the fact that (back then) they were probably older souls, even in their 60's. Also, I wonder if despite becoming grandparents at 45, they were still raising teens at home. Therefore, they still had a job as parent. Who knows.
Interesting thoughts here! I come from an East African background and great-grandmothers particularly were common, because women started having children so young (even teenage years, in my grandmother's generation). Great-grandfathers you would see much less often, I think both due to shorter life expectancy of men and the age in which they started having children. (For your data, I think the numbers are too heavily influenced by larger numbers of deaths under 5 years old, so life expectancy after early childhood hasn't actually increased that much.)
Thanks for this! It seems everyone has chosen to point that out to me (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39839629) and I seriously regret having referenced any data in this post at this point :(
I'm well-aware that life expectancy at birth is not the best proxy here (as I am one to regularly point out to my dad that *his* life expectancy isn't ~72 given he's already 60), but ended up mentioning it instead of going on a deep data dive about "life expectancy as an adult in the 17 and 1800s" as that wasn't what I wanted with this piece.
Nevertheless, while child mortality heavily influenced those numbers, a lot fewer people did still make it to older age - just think of all the advances we've made to modern medicine. I may have made a mistake to mention the 1800s but overall I'm reasonably confident my point about "a small window in humanity" still stands. Were there a lot of great-grandparents in the 1200s I wonder? What about the 500s? Either way, that still leaves us with just a dozen or so centuries for the "age of great-grandparents" out of all the time humans have been on Earth.
Oh no, I’m sorry I mentioned it again then! I’m sure that’s annoying 😓 yes, in the grand scheme of human history I’m sure even having grandparents into adulthood is quite beautiful.
Yeah sorry for using this comment as an outlet. But yes, a mistake on my part to use life expectancy at birth (despite knowing better). Personally think the point still stands though
My understanding is that life expectancy was low in the past because child mortality was high, but adults who made it past these perilous early years often lived into their 60s, 70s.
You're right! I did actually add a small note about this in the piece as well since I'm always one to note to people about how life expectancy at birth isn't what we should look at.
(I constantly remind my 60-year-old parents that _their_ life expectancy is not ~72 but rather much higher)
However, it was just the proxy I used here as going on a full data deep dive was not my objective here. I'm reasonably sure we can agree though that life expectancy at 40 was significantly lower than back then though, given all the advances in medicine and other aspects of society.
"Were great-grandparents a thing in the past?" would probably be a fun follow-up to this, but while I made a point about the past in this post the main focus is the future!
Honestly, with all the drinking, weed, meds, and fatness I would expect life expectancy for millennials and Z to decrease. 72 is a safe bet. Actually there are many in 50s without health insurance so that helps to cull the herd as well.
I met four of my great-grandparents and had a good relationship with two of them (my maternal-maternal set). Of those two, my great-grandfather died when I was 11. However, my great-grandmother lived until I was 35... and I had teenage children by that time... so, we had 5 generations alive. If she would have survived another 5 years, we would have reached 6 generations alive at one time.
We see the same trend here in India too. Do you think it is only a function of better life expectancy alone that couples have decided to have children much later?
I have a feeling that the cost of living also seems to be a function (or people wanting to settle down financially) which is forcing folks to get married much later. Of course, women being empowered to take their own decisions has significantly changed the timelines.
Counter intuitively in affluent families and families of old wealth, I find that marriages and the kids happen much earlier (early 20s - mid 20s).
There is also a factor of “I don’t want to bring a child into this f’ed up world.”, at least in the middle/upper-middle class in the US.
Apple will soon include A.I. in iPhones that will in essence provide an eternal simulation of each of us. Progeny will be able to interact with us in our own voices and likely in 3D. When openAI and its humanoid robots align, your AI clone will be uploaded to the unit. Unfortunately “you” won’t be able to enjoy or reciprocate “their” enjoyment. Similar to if you recorded a video to your family today and they watched it after you passed away.
In usa the age of average marriage is 29 (30 male 28 female i think). I didnt marry until age 35. I am pretty certain my family has NEVER had a great grandmother (all college educated).
The postwar baby boom and suburbanization and lots of factory jobs allowed many GIs to be married with a house in the suburbs at age TWENTY FIVE - ready to procreate! High college tuition inflation (5% annually these past 40 years) and the disappearance of Pell educational grants has probably added 5 years to the age of the average first time parent ... Lots of stuff needs to be fixed to allow childbirth at under age 25 in the future!
Inflation has caused the rule of thumb for generations to go from 30 to 40 and beyond. If we just wait until we are financially secure and not narcissistic....that will be the perfect time to have a child. Never happens. iPhone broke society.
I believe that even though this generation is becoming grandparents at an older age, they seem to be younger at heart than previous generations. Most memories of my grandma are basically of her knitting, taking care of the house, and praying the rosary. There wasn't a real connection with grandchildren, and I attribute this to the fact that (back then) they were probably older souls, even in their 60's. Also, I wonder if despite becoming grandparents at 45, they were still raising teens at home. Therefore, they still had a job as parent. Who knows.